THE JAMAICAN MID-SUMMER
DROUGHT AND NAO
Teddy Allen
Department of Geography,
The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) varies between positive
and negative phases that influence global atmospheric circulation patterns. The
seasonal strength of the Caribbean low-level jet responds to the phases of the
NAO and contributes to precipitation variability throughout the Caribbean
region. The Caribbean low level jet, with a maximum at 925mb, together with the
200mb winds influences the magnitude of the regional Mid Summer Drought. A
strong vertical wind shear further suppresses the precipitation minimum during
the Mid Summer Drought by reducing overall convective processes. This scenario
can increase crop stress, which creates concern for local farmers and economies
that depend on agricultural productivity.
Jamaica represents a prime example of a nation that exists
within the Mid Summer Drought region that relies upon agriculture as a major
component of their economy. NCAR reanalysis 925mb and 200mb wind data along
with surface pressures and station rain gauge data are used to establish the
relationship between the NAO, the
THE
ESIP FEDERATIONS LONG EXPERIENCE IN THE
DEVELOPMENT AND DEPLOYMENT OF WEB SERVICES
Karl Benedict, Ph.D.
Poster
For nearly 10-years the members of
Federation of Earth Science Information Partners (ESIP Federation) have worked
to develop, promote, and deploy reusable, standards-based data services, both
for use within the Federation and for external project partners. This poster
explains and illustrates some of the data services and service models developed
by Federation members. These models include services that are based upon the
geospatial data standards developed by the Open Geospatial Consortium (OGC), web
and data structure standards developed by the World-Wide-Web Consortium (W3C),
metadata standards developed by the Federal Geographic Data Committee (FGDC)
and the International Standards Organization (ISO), and specifications developed
by communities of developers. The development of standards- based technologies
within the Federation membership has greatly streamlined access to and distribution
of data and data-based products, with the experience of the Federation
membership providing a rich collection of service-based examples which may be
used to inform the development of new applications.
CLIMATE PREDICTIONS AND
NAVAL DECISION-MAKING
Tony Boyter
Navy Climatology Supports:
- USN Ship Transits - entire ocean basin or multiple basins includes all basic weather elements
- Global Submarine Surveillance - primarily winds, waves and ocean temperature profiles
- Exercise/Operations Planning? Specific location all basic weather elements
- Weapons/Platform
Deployment/Development? Regional area support for usually one or two
specific weather elements
INTEGRATED WATER
RESOURCES PRODUCTS FOR
DROUGHT MONITORING
IN NORTH CAROLINA
Mark Brooks, Ryan Boyles
State Climate Office of
Water supply issues are becoming more economically and
socially important than ever before. Reliable and timely monitoring of water
resource data is critical for the operations and policy of the state and
individual municipalities. With funding from the North Carolina Division of
Water Resources (NC DWR), the State Climate Office of North Carolina (SCO)
developed CRONOS H2O. CRONOS H2O is part of the Climate Retrieval and
Observations Network of the Southeast (CRONOS) already developed by the SCO. CRONOS
H2O is a database and dissemination tool that helps agencies and citizens
monitor water resource data from several different sources. Streamflows,
groundwater, reservoir levels, and precipitation from
The SCO, a public-service center and extension of the UNC
system, works closely with NC state agencies, researchers and user-groups to
serve the climate needs of
FORECASTING CLIMATE AND HEALTH RELATED EVENTS ON PLATANUS POLLEN AND GRASS POLLEN SEASONS IN THE MADRID REGION (SPAIN)
J.L. Camacho (1), D. Cano (1), P. Cervign (2), J. Daz (2), A.M. Gutirrez (2), J. Subiza (2)
(1) National Institute of Meteorology, Spain (2) PalinoCAM Network, Autonomous Region of Madrid, Spain, (3)
Poster
Medical urgencies related to allergenic pollens have
increased in the last decades. More than 5% of the around 6 million people
living at the autonomous
FORECASTING
AND REDUCING THE COST OF EXTREME EVENTS:
Aston
Chipanshi, Harvey Hill & Gordon Sparks
Agriculture and
A goal of NOAA and other agencies
has been to utilize climate forecasts and information innovatively to enhance
decision-making. This presentation describes a pilot study that integrates
climate information, hydrology, geographic information systems, and economics.
The goal of the integration is to develop a methodology to assess the expected
cost and impact of alternative extreme rainfall events on infrastructure
systems. Secondly it describes how the alternative adaptation responses are
assessed in terms of costs and benefits stochastically. The presentation
concludes with a description of the next steps planned to integrate this into
operational settings.
CLIMATE VARIATION AND USACE WATER RESOURCE MANAGEMENT
Jack E. Davis and William R. Curtis
Coastal and Hydraulics Laboratory
USAE Research and
The challenge for the Corps and all water resource manage
agencies is to interpret the science related to climate projections, assess
potential impacts, then translate those impacts to criteria for project
planning, design and effective operation. The Corps is meeting this challenge
by collaborating with Federal and non-federal management agencies regarding
appropriate response to climate change, and coordinating with research efforts
to define uncertainty and develop methods to manage risk associated with climate
projections and assessments. This presentation provides an overview of the
Corps research activities related to characterizing climate variability impacts
to project operations, and to explore alternative mitigation strategies to
offset expected climate variability impacts.
COMMUNICATING
CLIMATE DATA FOR DECISION SUPPORT AT THE COUNTY AND REGIONAL LEVEL THROUGH
GEOSPATIAL VISUALIZATION
J. Greg
Dobson and James F. Fox
Comprehensive climate data exists
within many federal, regional, and state agencies. There is now more climate
information available than ever before, which can potentially improve decision
making at multiple levels and across multiple sectors. However, much of the
climate information is not in formats that are easily interpreted by the
non-scientific community. Through the support of a multi-disciplinary
collaboration involving the University of North Carolina at Asheville (UNCA),
the Renaissance Computing Institute (RENCI) at UNCA, the National Climatic Data
Center (NCDC), and the North Carolina State Climate Office, the issue of making
raw climate data more meaningful to such local decision making groups as city
and county councils, emergency and first responders, and community planners is
being addressed through applied research. Additional collaborative support
comes from a working relationship with the Greenville-Spartanburg National
Weather Service Forecast Office.
The focus is to ingest climate data from multiple sources and integrate the
data with a variety of other datasets, including economic, cadastral,
infrastructure, and physical data. Data integration occurs at a county and
regional scale in order to facilitate local decision making addressing issues
that affect these areas directly, such as weather-related hazards, climate
change, and land use planning. Geospatial Visualization techniques, including
geographic information systems (GIS), Google Earth, and other open-source and
online applications, are used to create a variety of integrated climate data
products. Many of the products are 3D in nature (e.g. graphics, posters,
animations) in an effort to simulate a virtual experience of the data and
locations that the data relates to.
A particular case-study examined the Swannanoa Watershed in
INTEGRATED
ASSESSMENT OF THE IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON THE STATE OF WASHINGTON
M.M. Elsner,
J.S. Littell, E.L. Miles, D.P. Lettenmaier
Climate Impacts Group,
In April 2007, the State of
IMPACTS OF
CLIMATE CHANGE ON
M.M. Elsner, J.S. Littell, E.L. Miles,
D.P. Lettenmaier
Climate Impacts Group,
Poster
Climate change has and will continue to cause substantial
changes in temperature, precipitation and related variables (e.g., streamflow
timing and volume) in the western
HOW DID WE DO?
INITIAL RESULTS FROM A PILOT CLIMAS
STAKEHOLDER EVALUATION PROJECT
Daniel
Ferguson, Anne Browning-Aiken, Gregg Garfin, Daniel McDonald, Marta Stuart,
Jennifer Rice
CLIMAS-Institute for the Study of Planet
Earth, University of
Department of Geography,
The mission of the Climate Assessment for the Southwest
(CLIMAS) program is to improve the regions ability to respond sufficiently and
appropriately to climate events, variability, and changes. The program promotes
participatory, iterative research involving scientists, decision makers,
resource users, educators, and others who need more and better information
about climate and its impacts. The CLIMAS Stakeholder Evaluation project,
currently underway, is examining CLIMAS efforts to engage stakeholders on
climate-related topics (with a particular emphasis on drought-related
engagement) through a broad array of efforts between 2002 and 2007. The
evaluation is designed to systematically examine a variety of methods employed
by CLIMAS researchers and the core office to engage stakeholders.
The primary goals of the evaluation project are to determine: (a) penetration
of CLIMAS information to stakeholders, (b) the perceived salience, credibility
and legitimacy of CLIMAS research and outreach, and (c) changes in stakeholder
attitudes, knowledge, and behavior as a result of partnerships and
collaborative processes. The six-person evaluation team is comprised of both
CLIMAS team members and experienced program evaluators with no CLIMAS contact
prior to this effort. The team is using an evaluation approach that includes a
survey, key informant interviews, and focus groups.
The knowledge generated by this project will provide a broad array of insights
into the successes and challenges of a long-term, stakeholder-driven climate
research and outreach effort. This knowledge is important both for the future
success of the CLIMAS project itself, but more generally it will offer guidance
for other initiatives with similar operational models, like the National
Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS).
Josh Foster
UCAR/NOAA, Climate Program Office,
In the last five years, momentum
in NOAA to establish research to operations and applications transition
mechanisms has grown as a result of external recommendations (e.g. National
Research Council reports, CCSP Strategic Plan) and internal policy changes. In
May 2005, NOAA issued an Administrative Order (NAO) 216-105 for a Policy on
Transition of Research to Applications. The NOAA Climate Transition Program
(NCTP) was launched in 2003, changing its name to TRACS in 2005. The mission of
the TRACS Program is to use competitive research grants to transition
experimentally mature climate information tools, methods, and processes,
including computer related applications (e.g. web interfaces, visualization
tools), from research mode into settings where they may be applied in an
operational and sustained manner. The primary goal is to generate sustained
delivery of useful climate information products and services to local,
regional, national, and international decision and policy makers. A secondary
goal seeks not only to support implementation of these transitions, but also to
learn from partners how to better accomplish technology transition processes
for public goods applications and improved risk management. Led primarily from
the university and Federal laboratory research communities, TRACS emphasizes
engaging with operations, extension, and user communities in transition
partnership projects. TRACS is designed to accommodate four types of transition
project partnerships: 1) Within NOAA units; 2) From external partners to NOAA;
3) From NOAA to external partners; 4) Among external (NOAA) partners (using
NOAA funds). Beginning in 2005, TRACS has funded the start of projects
involving universities working with a range of partners, including but not limited
to, Regional Climate Centers, State Sea Grant, emergency and coastal managers,
the
NEW
DEVELOPMENTS AND FUTURE PLANS FOR AgClimate.org
AgClimate.org is a web-based
climate forecast and decision support system developed by the Southeast Climate
Consortium (SECC) in partnership with the Cooperative State Extension Service.
The SECC is a coalition of six universities -
RISA REGIONAL DROUGHT KNOWLEDGE TRANSFERS:
SOUTHEAST/SOUTHWEST
U.
CLIMATE
PREDICTION APPLICATIONS POSTDOCTORAL PROGRAM (CPAPP) AN EXPERIMENT IN INTERFACING CLIMATE AND SOCIETY
Lisa Goddard, Kelly Redmond,
and Meg Austin
IRI,
NCAR
This postdoctoral
program was conceived and developed by the US CLIVAR panel on Predictability,
Prediction and Application Interface (PPAI). The mission of the PPAI panel is
to encourage improved practices in the provision, validation and use of
climate forecast information on sub-seasonal to centennial time scales through
broad but coordinated participation within the US and active collaboration with
the international climate and climate applications communities. A primary goal of this panel (http://usclivar.org/Organization/PPAIpanel.html)
is, To enable the use of CLIVAR science for improved decision support. Making progress in interfacing climate
science with decision and information systems requires more than just good
climate information; it requires a dedicated effort to understanding the
problems and possibilities on both sides. To complement strategies tried in the
past (hosting meetings of climate scientists and decision makers;
trans-disciplinary research), which although useful reach a limited and finite
audience, we sought a new approach. The idea was to develop a new population of
individuals qualified to work closely with both the climate research and
decision making communities, through a targeted and trans-disciplinary
postdoctoral program. This presentation will describe the program its goals,
design, and how it is currently succeeding as the program enters its first
year.
A
COLLABORATIVE EFFORT BETWEEN THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER AND THE
Jon
Gottschalck, Sarah Trainor, Wayne Higgins, Tim Eichler
NOAA /
At the Climate Prediction
Applications Science Workshop (CPASW) in
Progress to date of this collaboration is described and includes the
organization of an Alaska wide teleconference for a variety of Alaska
stakeholders to learn about CPC storminess related products and potential
capabilities. The above teleconference has led to a prioritized list of work
items that in part will be included in a formalized workplan currently being
developed. Some initial results and plans are presented and include work in
three areas - (1) evaluation of storminess related numerical model results from
the next generation Climate Forecast System (CFS), (2) development of a
storminess index that includes information about storm frequency, duration, and
intensity into a single index, and (3) plans for the development of a
storminess-related probabilistic tool for the 6-10 day and 8-14 day time
periods using the Global Forecast System (GFS) and later the CFS for longer
time ranges (monthly, seasonal). Finally, it is hoped that the framework being
utilized as part of this collaboration can be applied to other CPC products and
potentially other partners wishing to work more closely with CPC.
Bart
Hagemeyer
NOAA/NWS
Poster
An advantage of using LR is that customers can be involved in the database
development by defining the thresholds for critical values that are most
important to their particular endeavor with the result being customized
probabilistic forecasts of the impact of the teleconnections. Although the
author's work has been for the
Traditional deterministic methods to predict the impact of ENSO on a customer
have considerable drawbacks. Consider the El Nino of 2006-07; was it a weak,
moderate or strong? What should a user of a seasonal rainfall forecast do to
exploit the occurrence to their advantage? Conventional wisdom holds that an El
Nino should result in wetter than normal conditions in
SUPPORTING
CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION IN U.S. NATIONAL PARKS THROUGH SCENARIO PLANNING
Holly C.
Hartmann, Leigh Welling, Lee Macholz
National Park Service,
Climate changes associated with
global warming pose myriad risks in natural resource management. The National
Park Service (NPS) faces daunting challenges in addressing prospective climate
change impacts; in some parks, changes threaten the existence of emblematic
park attributes. Each park faces unique risks, reflecting its natural,
cultural, and historical attributes, its purpose as defined in establishing
authorization, the resources available for planning and implementing adaptive
responses, and the uncertainty of local climate change impacts.
We experimentally applied a formal scenario planning process to two parks:
Joshua Tree National Park (JTNP) in southern
The case studies focused on the question, How will we manage this park in the
face of prospective climate change impacts? The formal process emphasized
development of scenarios diverging across multiple dimensions, to plausibly
push the boundaries of commonplace assumptions about the future rather than
simply bracketing a moderate climate projection with higher and lower extremes.
This process required engaging a broad range of park management and science
specialists, with participation changing flexibly as the process addressed
different issues.
Participants generally were familiar with NPS planning processes or evaluating
management alternatives, but not with scenario planning. The guidebook prepared
by the University of Washington Climate Impacts Group and King County,
Preparing for Climate Change, provided important structure for identifying
external driving forces and anticipated impacts across a range of management
sectors.
Implementation of the scenario planning process was challenging because
participants were scattered across many states, yet scenario development
required repeated iterations of extensive discussion followed by data gathering
and analysis. Use of a systems diagramming tool in an Internet-based meeting environment
proved useful for elucidating a common understanding of linkages between
driving forces, internal system dynamics, and anticipated impacts.
Adaptation strategies were developed in response to the scenarios at a 2-day
workshop at JTNP. While some sea level rise scenarios initially seemed to pose
insurmountable challenges, managers ultimately identified strategies that
preserved the cultural importance of KHNHP. Strategies for JTNP management were
more tentative, reflecting a greater variety of external stressors and system
interactions. The scenario planning approach was considered useful for
considering climate change in the context of complex systems and large
uncertainties, and for connecting scientific analysis to management concerns
and processes.
CONNECTING DATA PROVIDERS
AND STAKEHOLDERS
PRESENTATION: 1(Bridges)/2(ESIP)
Foundation for Earth Science
communities - represented by the RISAs and the Federation of
Earth Science
STRATEGY FOR
DEVELOPING CLIMATE FORECAST PRODUCTS IN COOPERATION WITH EXTERNAL PARTNERS
Wayne
Higgins and Mike Halpert
The Climate Prediction Center
(CPC) plays a unique and important role in NOAA Climate Services as a provider
of short term climate forecast products (weeks, months, seasons, years) that
serve a diverse customer base. CPCs role depends on strong leadership to
establish new partnerships (with a customer focus) that accelerate the
development and delivery of forecast products and services.
This talk presents the key elements of CPCs strategy for developing climate
forecast products in cooperation with external partners. The strategy includes
appropriate guidelines for adding tools to CPCs climate forecast product suite,
and a Climate Forecast Products Team (CPFT) that partners with customers to
meet their needs for climate information. New initiatives, such as the NOAA
Climate Test Bed (CTB), are opportunities to enhance these partnerships.
Potential partners need to know what the CPC priorities are for next year, the
year after that, and so on. Partners also need to know what specific CPC
resources will be expended in the pursuit of those priorities, a timetable for
producing specific products, and what potential partners could add to these
efforts. This talk provides an overview of CPC future priorities with emphasis
on the strategic challenges and the strategic approach that CPC is taking to
address those challenges.
WHAT MAY BE NEEDED TO
CHANGE FARMERS PERCEPTION OF USING CLIMATE PREDICTIONS IN FARMING DECISIONS
Qi S. Hu,
Lisa M. PytlikZillig, Kenneth G. Hubbard, Gary D. Lynne, and Roger H. Bruning
School of Natural Resources, Center for
Instructional Innovation, Department of Educational Psychology, and Department of
Agricultural Economics, University of Nebraska-Lincoln
A climate information transition
tool, the ThinkAboutIt and its resources, was tested and evaluated in two
recent workshops. Farmers from south central
Outcomes of the workshops suggest changes in farmers perceptions and abilities
in using climate and weather predictions and products if they are properly
guided to know the specifics of the predictions and are shown their relevance
to the decision. Details and implications of these results will be discussed in
the presentation.
EVALUATION AND USER
NEEDS RELATED TO EXPERIMENTAL SERVICE OF EARLY WARNING INFORMATION ON EXTREME
TEMPERATURE EVENTS IN JAPAN
Akira Ito
Climate Prediction Division
Japan Meteorological
Agency
Poster
We would like to present a new operational system of
providing climate information, which is called the early warning information
system for extreme weather. The aim of the activity is to improve
decision-making processes for reducing social damages in early stage so that
the target period of the system is approximately one to two weeks prior to its
occurrence. The system regularly provides probabilistic forecasting
distributions focused on an extreme high or low temperature over each local
region or at each specific site through the JMA Internet site. The Internet
site enables users to get any probability that the temperature will exceed the
requested threshold value. Furthermore, when there is a relatively high possibility
of an extreme high or low temperature that may have far reaching effects on
society, the early warning information system assists forecasters to issue
meteorological information on the numerical probability of its occurrence with
their comments.
It is expected that the early warning information is used
for paddy rice production management, applied to wheat growth model and
incorporated into the planning of electric supply through the participation of
agricultural organizations and electric power companies.
We are particularly concerned about low temperatures in
summer. This is because low summer temperatures have serious effects on the
quality and yield of rice, the staple food of the Japanese people. Moreover,
excessively low temperatures in summer can cause a sharp decrease in the rice
yield. In July 2007, a warning was issued about low temperatures for
RESIDENTIAL
WATER DEMAND: LESSONS FROM
Douglas S.
Kenney, Christopher Goemans, Roberta Klein, Jessica Lowrey, and Kevin Reidy
Western Water Assessment
The purpose of this study was to quantify and assess the savings associated
with the various demand management program elements during and after a drought.
We compared the influence of price, water use restriction, and weather on
monthly residential water demand during drought and pre-drought periods using
household data from 10,000 residential customers in
Results from this study expand the understanding of the effect of climate and
conservation policies on residential demand in at least three salient ways:
first, pricing and outdoor water restriction policies interact with each other
and total water savings are not additive of each program operating independently;
second, the effectiveness of pricing and restrictions policies varies among
different classes of customers (i.e., low, middle and high volume water users)
and between pre-drought and drought periods; and third, in demonstrating that
real-time information about consumptive use helps customers reach water-use
targets. Future research seeks to look further into how climate affects outdoor
water demand by identifying how landscape irrigation methods and lawn size
affect customers reactions to price, water restrictions, and weather.
Do Kyun Kim, Ph.D., &
Edward W. Maibach, Ph.D.
Concern about climate change is
high among scientists, the public, and other key segments of society (e.g.,
farmers, health professionals, policy makers). Despite the concern, people’s behavior,
business practices, and public policy have been slow to change. Diffusion of
Innovation Theory helps explain why these behaviors, practices and policies
have been slow to change, and what can be done about it. Our presentation
focuses on harnessing the profound influence opinion leaders. The success or
failure of new ideas, practices, products and services often hinges on the
acceptance of, and subsequent promotion by, opinion leaders. We discuss (1) the
basis for why and how opinion leaders are so influential; (2) the proven
effectiveness of opinion leader strategies in other domains of society (e.g.,
AIDS prevention); (3) the potential to harness opinion leaders to promote
climate change prevention and adaptation practices; and (4) research needed to
effectively scale-up such interventions.
CLIMATE
SERVICES
Dr.
NOAA
NOAAs strategy to address the
demand for climate services is evolving. The goal is to coordinate and enhance
NOAAs existing capabilities and infrastructure, as well as draw upon the full
suite of resources and products across the nation. The service should provide
essential information and services about the nature and impacts of changing
climate conditions to meet growing public demand. Topics of discussion will
include the history and evolution of climate services, strategies for
integrating research and services, and the importance of regional approaches.
POTENTIAL FOR NEXT GENERATION PROBABILISTIC FORECAST
PRODUCTS
Michelle
L'Heureux, Dan Collins, Wayne Higgins, Jeff Whitaker, Tom Hamill
NOAA/NWS/NCEP/CPC and NOAA/OAR/ESRL/PSD
Poster
The partnerships between the
Climate Test Bed/CPC and the Regional Integrated Science and Assessments
(RISAs) have illuminated the demand from various user communities for
high-resolution, sub-seasonal, probabilistic forecast products. Forecasters at
CPC currently use a blend of various forecast tools and models in order to
create low-resolution probabilistic temperature and precipitation forecasts for
6-10 days and Week 2. One of the more historically skillful tools is a
reforecast-based statistical correction of an ensemble forecast model (1998
MRF) developed by Whitaker and Hamill. Despite using a ten-year-old model, this
technique still provides skill that rivals newer higher-resolution models and
has the additional benefit of producing probabilistic, downscaled products that
are in demand among diverse user communities. We seek to extend the Whitaker
and Hamill technique using a state-of-the-art coupled forecast model, such as
the NCEP Climate Forecast System (CFS), which, if supplemented with additional
ensemble reforecasts, will enable the correction of week-3 and week-4
forecasts. Potential benefits to the user communities will include improved
warning for potential of extreme events, such as flooding rains, cold-air
outbreaks and heat waves in weeks 2-4.
INTERACTIONS WITH COLORADO
MUNICIPAL WATER MANAGERS ELEVATE THE USE OF CLIMATE INFORMATION
Jessica Lowrey and Andrea J. Ray
Climate Diagnostics Center, Boulder CO
The Western Water Assessment (WWA) has conducted extensive
research on the uses and needs of
As a result of these interactions, water managers are taking
steps to use more climate information and to incorporate risk of climate
variability in annual operations and long-term planning. For example, they have
implemented drought plans that have various stages allowing for different
levels of demand, and the stages have triggers based on climate variables like
snowpack and forecasted streamflows. WWA workshops and meetings have also
fostered communication among water management groups who share water sources
and reservoirs in an interconnected system. Water managers are now working
together to incorporate common analysis of climate information into hydrology
models to assess the range of future streamflows for regional water planning.
This collaborative process between WWA and water managers illustrates a critical climate service and a successful RISA communication effort in this region. Results of this project include specific needs of municipal water managers for climate information and research. We will continue to foster education and communication among interconnected groups and provide feedback to NOAA climate services about these needs.
THE FORMULATION
AND PRESENTATION OF AN OFFICIAL STATEMENT ON CLIMATE CHANGE FOR OKLAHOMA
Gary McManus
and Dr. Ken Crawford
The Oklahoma Climatological Survey
(OCS), in its function as the state climate office, has been mandated by the
The formulation of the climate change statement, eventually released by OCS in
late-summer 2007, encountered considerations not strictly limited to the
science itself. In an effort to get the information contained within the
statement accepted by the greatest possible audience, great care was taken to
avoid alarmist jargon or politically-charged content. The science portion of
the climate change statement therefore was built strictly on the broad
consensus that exists within the scientific community regarding climate change.
A section on recommendations was added to afford OCS an opportunity to give its
thoughts to decision-makers about planning for not only the impacts of climate
change, but the impacts of natural variability as well.
The statement has been well-received by state decision-makers, and has afforded
many opportunities for OCS to interact with other state entities concerning
climate change and other matters. Partnerships have been forged with the
Oklahoma Water Resources Board, the Oklahoma Association of Conservation
Districts and the Oklahoma Conservation Commission, and the Oklahoma Department
of Agriculture. Climatologists from OCS have been asked to speak to a broad
range of functions and committees concerning climate change, from the Oklahoma
Senate to church groups.
TWO BECOMES
ONE: CARTOGRAPHIC INTEGRATION OF THE
Richard Murphy
Poster
Communicating drought information affords an important
context in which the significance of visualizing indicators can enhance
decision-making. Understanding the spatiality of drought conditions can aid in
gauging and mitigating current and anticipated impacts and losses. The U.S.
Drought Monitor (USDM) and the U.S. Seasonal Drought Outlook (USSDO) synthesize
complex drought model and measurement outputs that incorporate synoptic
climatology, soil moisture calculations, and regionalized insights provided by
experts into a summary output for a general audience. The USDM map communicates
current drought conditions while the USSDO maps forecasted drought tendency. While
the USDM is effective as a standalone tool, the USSDO depends on the USDM to
provide context to its drought trend categories.
This investigation draws upon cartographic communication
theory to ask whether a single map integrating information from the USDM and
USSDO is more effective than the current method of communication that utilizes
two separate maps. Information from the USDM and USSDO was integrated into a
single-map format displaying categories of drought tendency within the context
of measured drought conditions at the time the forecast was issued. Three
variations of this single-map format were developed and tested along with the
current two-map communication method. Surveys were conducted to evaluate the
subjective and objective effectiveness of each visual communication method. User
preference and accuracy of interpretation were the basis for evaluating and
comparing the effectiveness of the single-map integrations of the USDM and
USSDO versus the current method of presenting the information in two separate
maps.
EVOLUTION OF THE
AFRICAN MONSOON DURING 2006
Rosana Nieto-Ferreira, Tom Rickenbach,
Nick Guy, and Earle Williams
ECU, ECU, SJSU, MIT
EXPERIMENTAL
WATER RESOURCES STREAMFLOW OUTLOOK
Jim Noel
NOAA/NWS/Ohio River Forecast Center
With the implementation of the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Services (AHPS),
River Forecast Centers (RFCs) are issuing 30- to 90-day probabilistic
hydrologic forecasts for river forecast points using the NWS River Forecast
System (NWSRFS) Ensemble Streamflow Prediction (ESP) system. Spring Flood
Outlooks are issued by Weather Forecast Offices (WFOs) and RFCs, based on the
time of the year. In addition, hydrologic outlooks are issued both routinely
and based on short term events as needed. The OHRFC Water Resources Streamflow
Outlook assists WFOs by filling a gap in RFC services by providing a continuous
water watch for floods and droughts beyond what is presently available.
The Water Resources Streamflow Outlook requires the use of the NWSRFS, the ESP
system, and a visualization and analysis system, the ESP Analysis and Display
Program (ESPADP), to generate expected weekly mean flows for the next 30, 60,
and 90 days. It also uses short term quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPF)
from the National Center for Environmental Predictions (NCEP)
Hydrometeorological Prediction Center (HPC), the Climate Prediction Centers
(CPC) 6- to 10-day, 30-day and 90-day temperature and precipitation outlooks, and
the day 1 to 7 temperature departures from normal, which are derived from the
National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD).
Results of this new climate product produced by the OHRFC have been very good.
Verification results for a 16 month period have been promising using the CPC
outlooks combined with current NWSRFS soil states. Results for a 30-day outlook
showed 80% of the basins were forecast in the correct category. In addition,
the probability of detection (POD) for above average streamflows was 74% with a
false alarm rate (FAR) of 17%. The POD for below average streamflows was 64%
with a FAR of 9%.
The outlooks are made available to partners through local WFO AHPS webpages and
through the Ohio River
Forecast
USING INDEX INSURANCE TO
MANAGE CLIMATE RISK:
ISSUES IN SCALE UP AND
CAPACITY BUILDING
Daniel Osgood
As participants in index insurance
pilot projects gain an enhanced ability to manage climate risk, questions
remain on if these tools might be scaled up to the general population, and how
robust and adaptable the insurance is for challenges it must address in the
future. This talk presents the experience from selected index insurance pilots
and large scale market development efforts as well as research and capacity
building projects intended to meet upcoming challenges.
NIDIS: A MODEL FOR INTERAGENCY
CLIMATE
SERVICES COLLABORATION
Tim Owen, Roger Pulwarty, and Mark Svoboda
National Climatic
NOAA Climate Program Office
In support of this vision, the U.S. Drought Portal (USDP; drought.gov) has been
developed as a national resource for data, models, risk information and impacts
of drought, with responsibility for integrating, archiving, and disseminating
data via the internet. The first release of the portal has proven especially
helpful in assimilating drought-related information from multiple federal,
state, and other agencies in support of monitoring, forecasting, and impacts
assessment endeavors.
To strengthen this interagency collaboration, NIDIS will continue to develop
the portal and other technologies (e.g., touch table), and engage partners
through regional pilots with the following objectives:
Support the capability to provide data and information required for local,
national, and regional decisions on drought and other sectoral issues;
Act as a data integrator to complement and support sector-based issues (e.g.,
drought, water quality, carbon cycle, etc.);
Promote data standards (e.g., Service-Oriented Architecture) for linkage of
agency data to user inputs; and
Contribute to enhanced data visualization tools that allow integration and
interrogation of agency-provided and user-input spatial data.
CLIMATE PREDICTIONS AND
PUBLIC HEALTH:
EMERGING NEEDS AND
OPPORTUNITIES
Peter J. Robinson
NOAAs
Department of Geography,
Weather and Climate impacts human health in a great variety
of ways. Health groups, notably the American Public Health Association, are
becoming increasingly sensitized to the potential health implications of
climate change. Along with this awareness is developing a more general concern
associated with planning to ameliorate the impact of future climatic events.
Links and forecasts for specific purposes, such has heat waves or air
stagnation and pollution episodes, have long been established. Nevertheless it
appears that a whole new user community is emerging. Some established
application techniques may already be available, almost certainly some new ones
are needed. This paper reviews some of the concerns.
FAST DISSEMINATION
OF MANUAL OBSERVATIONS
Kelly
Redmond, Greg McCurdy, Grant Kelly, Tim Owen, Mike Brewer
Desert Research Institute /
NOAA / National Climatic
NOAA / National Weather Service
THOUGHTS ON ASSESSING
DECADAL-SCALE PRECIPITATION VARIATIONS AS SURROGATE FORECASTS
Jeanne M. Schneider
Agricultural Research Service, USDA
For much of the
AN EXTENDED
PROCEDURE FOR IMPLEMENTING THE RELATIVE OPERATING CHARACTERISTIC GRAPHICAL
METHOD
Fredrick
H.M. Semazzi and Roberto J. Mera
Dep. of Marine, Earth and Atmospheric
Science, and Dep. of Mathmatics,
The functional relationship
between the relative operating characteristic (ROC) and the economic value (EV)
graphical methods have been exploited to develop a hybrid procedure called the
extended ROC (EROC) method. The EROC retains the appealing simplicity of the
traditional ROC method and the ability of the EV method to provide evaluation
of the performance of an ensemble climate prediction system (EPS) for a
hypothetical end user defined by the cost-loss ratio (Mu=C/L). An inequality
defining the lower and upper theoretical bounds of Mu has been derived. Outside
these limits, the EPS yields no added benefits for end user relative to the use
of climatological persistence as an alternative prediction system. In the
traditional ROC graphical method, the ROC skill (ROCS) is often expressed in
terms of the area between the ROC graph and the diagonal baseline passing
through the origin with slope m=1. Thus, ROCS=2A-1 where A is the area under
the ROC graph. In the proposed EROC approach, a more general procedure is
recommended based on the construction of user-specific baselines that do not
necessarily pass through the origin and, in general, have a slope where m is
not equal to 1. The skill of a particular EPS computed from the EROC method is
proportional to the corresponding estimated value based on the EV graphical
method. Therefore, the EROC geometry conveys the same basic information as the
EV method. The SemazziMera skill score (SMSS) is proposed as a convenient and
compact way of expressing the combined verification based on the ROC and EV
methods. The ROCS estimate is a special case of the SMSS. The near-horizontal
trail-like geometry sometimes exhibited by EV graphs is also examined. It is
shown to occur when either the hit-rate or false-alarm term dominates in the
formula for EV, unlike the more typical situation in which both terms are
comparable in magnitude.
D. W. Shin,
S. Cocke, Y.-K. Lim, T. E. LaRow, G. A. Baigorria,
and J. J.
O'Brien
COAPS,
Agricultural & Biological Engineering
Department,
CLIMATE
VARIABILITY AND AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTIVITY: EVIDENCE FROM
Daniel
Solis, David Letson and Boris Bravo-Ureta
Studying the sources of technical efficiency (TE) in agriculture is an
important matter as it allows farmers and policy makers to identify and target
(private and public) actions to improve productivity and, consequently,
agricultural income (Solis et al. 2007). Fuglie et al. (2007) show that, during
the past 60 years, the lowest levels of agricultural productivity in the
In a recent extensive review of the agricultural efficiency literature,
Bravo-Ureta et al. (2007) report very few published articles that include some
kind of climate related variable in the empirical models. In general, authors
have argued that weather and climate can be considered as stochastic shocks and
thus, are naturally captured in the random error term in stochastic analyses
(Coelli et al. 2005). However, some authors have questioned this approach
claiming that the omission of environmental variables could bias the empirical
outcomes (Demir and Mahmud 2002).
Consequently, the goal of this study is to empirically evaluate the extent in
which agricultural productivity estimates are affected by variation on climate.
To do so, we explore the case of the agricultural sector in the
The empirical results show that climate variables are not only statistically
significant in all estimated models but that their omission could also generate
significant inconsistencies on TE scores. These results have significant policy
implications. Specifically, if the effects of uncontrollable climatic factors
on TE are significant, but not accounted for, then agricultural strategies
seeking corrective measures to improve productivity would have little impact
since the real source of technical inefficiency is the uncontrollable climatic
conditions.
AN UPDATE ON THE
CONVERSION OF THE NOAA/CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER (CPC) WEB PRODUCTS TO GIS
FORMAT
Viviane
Silva, Lloyd Thomas, Mike Halpert and Wayne Higgins
NOAA/NWS/NCEP/CPC
User requests for CPC climate
forecast products in Geographical Information System (GIS) format have been
rapidly increasing over the past few years. In order to satisfy customer needs
for improved climate information, CPC is transitioning its suite of climate
monitoring, assessment, and forecast products into GIS format. This activity is
directly related to CPCs mission to inform and serve the public. The objective
of this project is to provide CPC data to customers in standard GIS format
through an interactive, web-based system, as well as through direct data
transfer.
The NOAA/CPC has just acquired a copy of the ArcGIS Server Enterprise for
Linux. This software will allow for processing, extraction and display of GIS
(Geographic Information System) georeferenced data sets including shapefiles,
ESRI layers, and raster data sets (including geoTIFF and other formats using
world files). The server also allows the distribution of Metadata. Our project
and plans for the future will be described.
Tsegaye
Tadesse, Brian D. Wardlow, and Jae H. Ryu
Poster
The complexity of drought characteristics and the temporal
and spatial relationships of vegetation with climate make drought prediction
and its impacts on vegetation very challenging. However, improved
meteorological observations and predictions methods with recent advances in
satellite-based remote sensing have greatly improved our ability to monitor
vegetation condition that helps in drought early warning and knowledge-based
decision support system. In addition, studies that involve investigation of
ocean-atmosphere relationships indicated significant improvement of seasonal
climate predictions.
Because the drought monitoring tools usually used to assess vegetation
conditions are based on only climate or satellite vegetation indices, there is
an increasing need for comprehensive and efficient monitoring tool that
integrates both data and provides accurate and reliable information. Recent
studies showed that data mining techniques used to integrate data from
different databases to identify the hidden patterns within the data to
investigate the complex relationships. Data mining techniques can also help not
only to assess the vegetation conditions but also to predict based on
historical data.
In this study attempt has been done to identify spatial and temporal patterns
of drought and its impact on vegetation by integrating climate, oceanic, and
satellite-derived vegetation indices. Data mining technique particularly
regression tree modeling has been used in identifying these relationships and
integrating the observed data to predict the general vegetation condition 2-,
4-, and 6-weeks ahead of time. This new drought monitoring tool is called the
Vegetation Outlook (VegOut).
The VegOut maps are produced using rule-based regression tree models that were
generated to identify historical relationships (patterns) in space and time
between satellite-derived vegetation conditions, climatic drought indices,
oceanic indices, and biophysical data. The data used to produce the VegOut maps
include Standardized Seasonally integrated satellite vegetation Greenness
(SSG); climate drought indices such as the Standardized Precipitation Index
(SPI) and Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI), oceanic indices that include
the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), Multivariate ENSO index (MEI), the
Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), and Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation
(AMO); and biophysical parameters such as land cover type, available soil water
capacity, percent of irrigated farm land, and ecological region. Because the
models can be applied iteratively with input data from previous time periods,
the method enables to provide predictability of vegetation conditions farther
into the growing season based on earlier conditions.
MULTI-DIMENSIONAL
SERVICES OF NEW NWS LOCAL CLIMATE OUTLOOK PRODUCTS
Marina Timofeyeva
UCAR / NOAA NWS
January 2007 marked operational
release of NOAA National Weather Service (NWS) Local Three-Month Temperature
Outlooks (L3MTO). L3MTO is first in the local product series that NWS
operational climate services is developing to meet local customer needs for
more detailed and higher spatial resolution information. A great emphasis in
developing this product was given to the product user interface that includes
web design, entrained staff support, and customer feedback. Web design features
consistent information on product definitions, interpretation, benefits and
limitations. Staff support includes formal training on product methodology,
presentation format, interpretation, and long-term performance evaluation. It
also includes NWS internal and public fact sheets.
In 2008, a new product is being
prepared for launching: Three-Month Outlook of Local El Nino / La Nina Impacts
(3MOLEI). This new product will also include an emphasis on user interface, and
will provide an important auxiliary product: Local Rate of Temperature and
Precipitation Trends. These will be the first two climate variables featured in
3MOLEI. Local trend rate can guide users in their decisions on local climate
change and El Nina / La Nina local impacts in conjunction with climate change.
In addition to 3MOLEI on
temperature and precipitation, NWS field staff will be trained to conduct local
climate studies to identify other local climate variables impacted by El Nino /
La Nina. Although all operational products will be centrally produced, the
needs and justification will be driven by the field offices and local users.
Sarah F.
Trainor, Craig Gerlach, Dan White, John Walsh
Poster
The
To meet the challenge of diverse stakeholder needs, cross-cultural
communication between Alaska Natives and western scientists, and a broad range
of on-going climate impacts resulting from sea ice decline, permafrost degradation
and changes in seasonality, we have initiated and continue to develop a range
of climate products.
We host a monthly teleconference series focused on specific topics related to
climate change in
Our most recent product, The Alaska Weather and Climate Highlights website
(www.uaf.edu/accap/awch), provides a monthly summary of notable weather and
climate events in Alaska and is produced in conjunction with the National
Weather Service, Alaska Region and the Alaska Climate Research Center.
In addition, we are working closely with the Fairbanks North Star Borough as
they perform a climate change vulnerability assessment and create an adaptation
plan in conjunction with their membership in the ICLEI, local governments for
sustainability program. We have conducted an initial over-all stakeholder
workshop affiliated with the Alaska Forum on the Environment and a more
specialized workshop in rural
IMPACTS
OF CLIMATE ANOMALIES ON WATER RESOURCES IN THE CAROLINAS
Dan Tufford,
Greg Carbone, James Hussey, Kirstin Dow
It is widely recognized that
climate anomalies can impact seasonal weather. The effects are variable
depending on the season and geographic location of interest. As demand for
water grows in response to increasing population, issues of water availability,
quantity, and quality are increasingly urgent even in traditionally water-rich
areas such as the
NWS WESTERN WATER SUPPLY
SERVICES
Kevin Werner
NWS
The National Weather Service (NWS)
routinely makes forecasts for seasonal streamflow run off volumes for snow melt
dominated basins in the western
For the 2008 water year, the NWS is releasing a powerful new collection of web
based applications to provide forecast users with a much greater depth of data
than before including ensemble, forecast verification, and legacy applications.
Ensemble streamflow prediction forecasts are routinely provided by the six NWS
River Forecast Centers to this single page. Users can parse ensemble forecasts
according to various climate conditions, access numerical ensemble values for
their own applications, or compare predictions against previous predictions
and/or observations. Verification capabilities allow both forecasters and users
to generate customized graphics with information on historical forecast skill.
In addition, all capabilities from previous versions including maps and
forecast time evolution plots are available.
Future plans include development of tools to provide the water resource
community with information about relationships between surface water and climate
change and variability.
The current NWS web service is located here: www.nwrfc.noaa.gov/westernwater
TEN YEARS
AFTER..USER-CENTRICITY IN A MESSY SITUATION / Notes
John Wiener
Just
about ten years ago, the "Exploratory Assessment of Potential for Improved
Water Management through Increased Use of Climate Information in Three Western
States and Selected Tribes" began inquiries in a project that asked a
diverse set of potential climate prediction applications users about (1) what
weather and climate information sources were being used; (2) what weather and
climate information was wanted; and (3) when the information would be most
useful. The results from question 1 were presented previously to NOAA and
various meetings, including CPASW 4, with a table and later analysis of what
sources were used and comment on marketing climate information. The results
from questions 2 and 3 were presented to NOAA and various meetings, including
AMS 2002, 2004, several CPASW meetings, and others. The "shopping
lists" included items of widely variable difficulty and some have been
provided, and some not. The "decision calendar" as way to compile
information about what the users are doing and when they can best use
information is apparently spreading, as it is basic in many user-driven
approaches. But, the most difficult and far-reaching applications have been
tangled in a web of issues surrounding institutional change, and the largest
lesson from our community as whole that seeking such changes may be much more
challenging than describing their potential has not been learned in the
on-going case of Colorado water management. The presentation will review
highlights and lowlights of the case with added information about on-going
policy processes which may eventually prevail, and research on potential
problems. The focus in the last CPASW presentation was on very long-term issues
and how climate prediction applications may relate to resource management
rationalization; this one will focus on near-term problems in working with the
grass roots and the grass growers, considering political economy perspectives on
the problem of participation versus procrastination in policy change.
THE EASTER FREEZE,
4-10 APRIL 2007: AN ASSESSMENT OF IMPACTS AND SERVICES
Ray Wolf and
Doug Kluck
NOAA/National Weather Service
Arctic cold followed in early April with over 1500 weather stations breaking or
matching daily record low temperatures. The magnitude and duration of the cold
temperatures was particularly noteworthy in a climatological sense. Low
temperatures in the teens occurred throughout the eastern half of the country,
and freezing temperatures lasted almost a week in some areas. The duration of
the cold combined with strong winds hindered freeze protection efforts for high
value horticultural crops.
Agricultural and horticultural crops which started premature spring growth due
to the warm March were thus highly susceptible to the freezing temperatures.
Freeze damage was reported in nearly every state from
The National Weather Service provided advance warning of the Arctic freeze. The
first indication of freeze potential in
Survey findings of Central Region Warning and Forecast Offices indicate
services could be improved by establishing and utilizing closer ties with
university extension service specialists and USDA field offices. Specifically,
input from university extension service specialists should be used to determine
the need for freeze/frost products each season, not solely calendar dates or
climatology. Second, the USDA Farm Services Agency is an excellent source of
impact information for regional reports and Storm Data.
AN IMPROVED
MULTIVARIATE ENSO INDEX (MEI)
Klaus
Wolter, Michael S. Timlin
NOAA/ESRL PSD Climate Diagnostics Branch
This paper addresses the need for
an ENSO index that allows for the definition of ENSO events under operational,
near-realtime conditions. The Multivariate ENSO Index was originally developed
as the first Principal Component of six atmosphere-ocean variables in the
tropical Pacific basin. It provides for a more complete and flexible
description of the ENSO phenomenon than single-variable ENSO indices such as
the SOI or Nino 3.4 SST. Here we describe a new effort to expand the MEI
concept to include both satellite (OLR) and subsurface data.
DROUGHT-RELEVANT
INFORMATION PRODUCTS BASED ON LDAS-ERA
HYDROLOGIC MODELING
Andrew W.
Wood
Department of Civil and Environmental
Engineering,
Poster
Analytical approaches for characterizing drought rely predominantly on
observations of precipitation, temperature and to some extent snowpack and
streamflow, often aggregated to spatial units of climate divisions or
states. Yet drought is a multi-faceted phenomenon, and the relationship
of hydrologic aspects of drought to meteorological aspects of drought varies in
space and with the seasonal cycle. Physically-based hydrology models such
as those associated with the NASA/NOAA Land Data Assimilation System (LDAS)
project can help to make this connection across space and time scales using a
spatially consistent simulation framework. One such model, the Variable
Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model, has been the core of the University of
Washington Experimental Surface Water (SW) Monitor, which since 2005 has
provided daily-updating current analyses of
nation-wide soil moisture, snow water equivalent and runoff, as well as a
retrospective archive of similar products extending back to 1915. This
presentation describes new efforts involving the SW Monitor to develop
model-based information products that are tailored for drought assessment and
prediction, and highlights products based on multiple hydrologic
models and ensemble hydrologic forecasts.
APPLICATIONS OF
CLIMATE FORECAST INFORMATION IN WATER RESOURCE PLANNING: OPPORTUNITIES AND
CHALLENGES IN THE YAKIMA RIVER BASIN, WASHINGTON
Andrew W. Wood, Julie Vano, Shraddhanand
Shukla
and Anne C. Steinemann
University of Washington Department of Civil and Environmental
Engineering
Like many agricultural areas throughout the West, the
A CLIMATE APPROACH
TO DROUGHT PLANNING FOR URBAN WATER UTILITIES
David Yates
and David Purkey
NCAR and SEI
The Water Evaluation and Planning
(WEAP) decision support system (DSS) is applied to the watersheds of the South
Fork of the
Ning Zeng,
Jin-Ho Yoon, Augustin Vintzileos, G. James Collatz,
Eugenia
Kalnay, Annarita Mariotti, Arun Kumar, Antonio Busalacchi, Stephen Lord
Dept. of Atmos. and Ocean. Sci.,
ESSIC,
NOAA Environmental
ENEA Casaccia,
A prototype prediction system
demonstrates the feasibility of dynamical ecosystem and global carbon cycle
prediction on seasonal-interannual timescales.
Using a 25-year hindcast experiment, we explore the possibility of
seasonal-interannual prediction of the terrestrial ecosystem and the global
carbon cycle. This has been achieved using a prototype forecasting system in
which the dynamic vegetation and terrestrial carbon cycle model VEGAS was
forced with 15-member ensemble climate predictions consisting of lead times up
to 9 months from the NCEP/CFS climate forecast system. The results show that
the predictability is dominated by the ENSO signal with its major inuence on
the tropical and subtropical regions, including South America, Indonesia,
southern Africa, eastern Australia, western US and central Asia. There is also
important non-ENSO related predictability such as that associated with
midlatitude drought. Comparison of the dynamicalprediction results with
benchmark statistical prediction methods show that the dynamical method is
signicantly better than benchmark statistical methods such as anomaly
persistence and damping. The hindcasted ecosystem variables and carbonux show
signicantly slower decrease in skill compared to the climate variables, partly
due to the memories in land and vegetation processes that lter out the higher
frequency noise and sustain the signal.
TACKLING
THE ISSUE OF CLIMATE CHANGE IN FLORIDA AND
David F.
Zierden, Melissa Griffin, James J. O'Brien
COAPS,
Up to this point, the Southeast
Climate Consortium has concentrated on bringing information on climate
variability and seasonal predictions to agriculture and other sectors in the
The first step in preparing for a changing climate system is a thorough
understanding of the past climate. A careful analysis of historical weather and
ocean observations reveals useful information on the average state and
variability along with changes on time scales from seasonal, to interannual
(1-5 years), decadal, and even long-term trends. Much is known about the
year-to-year variations as caused by the El Nino/La Nina cycle in the
